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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.

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Analysis

Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bohemians (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Shamrock Rovers 1W, Bohemians 2W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Bohemians winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 46% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 47% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.53 xG and Bohemians 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.178 / defence 0.700 | Bohemians attack 0.819 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.210. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shamrock Rovers games / 46 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 17%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 30% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.

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