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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Galway United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Galway United 1-2 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.20 xG and Derry City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 39% | Draw 30% | Derry City 30%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 32%, Derry City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Derry City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.30 PPG, Derry City 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights