🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Galway United 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Galway United 2-3 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.01 xG and Derry City 0.77 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Galway United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Derry City attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Galway United 40% | Draw 34% | Derry City 26%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 22%, Derry City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Galway United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Galway United 1.44 PPG, Derry City 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights