Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.71
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.71
1.21
Waterford xG
DundalkDrawWaterford
2.31
43%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.504
λ Away (xG)
1.210
Total xG
2.714
League avg home goals
1.342
League avg away goals
1.098
Dundalk attack strength
0.842
Dundalk defence strength
1.130
Waterford attack strength
0.975
Waterford defence strength
1.332
Data phase
Blended
Games used (H/A)
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