Dundalk 5-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dundalk at 43%, yet in-form Waterford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Dundalk host Waterford at Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Dundalk's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Waterford — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Waterford have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Waterford — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dundalk, 3 for Waterford and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Dundalk 1–2 Waterford — a Waterford win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dundalk in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Waterford in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Waterford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 28% | Waterford 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.50 xG and Waterford 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.842 / defence 1.130 | Waterford attack 0.975 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. Waterford's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dundalk's projected output up. Data: built from Dundalk's last 5 games and Waterford's last 41. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 27% | Waterford 30%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.31 | Draw 3.71 | Waterford 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dundalk 20% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Dundalk 5 games, Waterford 41) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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