Dundalk 1-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 6W 3D 1L at Oriel Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
UCD (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
UCD's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Dundalk against 1.30 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with UCD winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
UCD — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 45% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | UCD 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.62 xG and UCD 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.056 / defence 0.985 | UCD attack 0.975 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.057. Data: 36 Dundalk games / 36 UCD games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 25% | UCD 24%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | UCD 4.17. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Dundalk 40% | UCD 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 52% | Draw 25% | UCD 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Dundalk 1.62 / UCD 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.056 / def 0.985 | UCD attack 0.975 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.01
UCD xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs UCD kick off?
Dundalk vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Dundalk 1 - 1 UCD.
Where is Dundalk vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs UCD part of?
Dundalk vs UCD is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 52% chance of winning, UCD a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dundalk and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
Record (4 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 1 | UCD 1W.
What form are Dundalk and UCD in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.06x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.97x) against Dundalk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.04
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
UCD xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
5%
21.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.01 for UCD, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 18W 12D 8L from 38 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 22L across 38 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 12W 5D 2L from 19 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
UCD's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.82 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and UCD in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 18W 12D 8L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or UCD away?
Dundalk's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.16 PPG; UCD away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Dundalk or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, UCD in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, UCD have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and UCD?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 53%, UCD 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Dundalk) and 53% (UCD). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; UCD in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play UCD?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Dundalk's matches and 53% of UCD's.
Do Dundalk and UCD tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, UCD in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and UCD share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 1, as Dundalk and UCD drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.62 xG and UCD 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against UCD attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 52% | Draw 25% | UCD 24%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, UCD 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. UCD (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.