Shelbourne 0-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Drogheda United's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Shelbourne, 1.10 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Drogheda United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 42% | Drogheda United 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.85 xG and Drogheda United 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.059 / defence 1.032 | Drogheda United attack 0.900 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.057. Data: 36 Shelbourne games / 36 Drogheda United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 58% | Draw 23% | Drogheda United 20%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Drogheda United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Shelbourne (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 40% | Drogheda United 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 58% | Draw 23% | Drogheda United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Shelbourne 1.85 / Drogheda United 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.059 / def 1.032 | Drogheda United attack 0.900 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Drogheda United xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Drogheda United kick off?
Shelbourne vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Shelbourne 0 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is Shelbourne vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Drogheda United part of?
Shelbourne vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 58% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shelbourne and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Drogheda United in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.06) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.90x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.44
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.83
0.98
Drogheda United xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
3%
32.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.98 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 10W 11D 15L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 16L across 36 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.06 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 2W 5D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Drogheda United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 0.94 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Drogheda United away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.17 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Drogheda United have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Drogheda United 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Drogheda United?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, Drogheda United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 44% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 39% of games; Drogheda United in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 50% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 44% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shelbourne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Drogheda United finished level at 0-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.85 xG and Drogheda United 0.98 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Drogheda United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Drogheda United attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 58% | Draw 23% | Drogheda United 20%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, Drogheda United 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.14 PPG, Drogheda United 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.