Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 3W 1D 6L at Oriel Park — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Dundalk, 0.70 for Shelbourne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Shelbourne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Shelbourne have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Dundalk's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.
It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 74% and Shelbourne 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 61% | Shelbourne 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.97 xG and Shelbourne 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.846 / defence 1.345 | Shelbourne attack 0.862 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.360. Data: 31 Dundalk games / 66 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 20% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 48%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Shelbourne 2.08. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Shelbourne 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 20% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Dundalk 0.97 / Shelbourne 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.846 / def 1.345 | Shelbourne attack 0.862 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Shelbourne xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 2 - 3 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 20% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Record (9 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 6W.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.85x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.86x) against Dundalk's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 31/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
20%
5.12
32%
3.08
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.54
1.58
Shelbourne xG
5.12
20%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
4%
24.76
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.58 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 10W 11D 10L from 31 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 10L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Dundalk against 1.19 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 5W 7D 2L across 14 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Shelbourne in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 10W 11D 10L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 8W 13D 10L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.43 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
2
Draws
7
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 64%, Shelbourne 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Dundalk and 50% for Shelbourne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Dundalk's games and 64% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Dundalk's matches and 50% of Shelbourne's.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Dundalk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 2-3 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.97 xG and Shelbourne 1.58 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shelbourne outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.85 / defence 1.34 against Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 0.81, drawn from 31/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 20% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 48%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 61%, Shelbourne 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.32 PPG, Shelbourne 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.