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Poisson rates Bohemians at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Bohemians encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Current Form

Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Bohemians have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bohemians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 9W 8D 7L from their 24 Premier Division appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 24 games (12%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.25 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, Bohemians show 12W 7D 6L from 25 outings in Premier Division. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 10 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 7 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 25 games (24%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Bohemians have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.10 per game versus 1.50 for the hosts. Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (10 vs 5). Penalty activity: Dundalk 2/2 vs Bohemians 6/7 this season.

Current Standings

In the Premier Division table, Bohemians sit 2nd on 43 points, 2 places and 8 points ahead of Dundalk in 4th.

At home this season, Dundalk have gone 6W 2D 4L. On the road, Bohemians's record stands at 8W 2D 3L this term. Bohemians: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

Trading Data

Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 71% and Bohemians 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | Bohemians 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.25 xG and Bohemians 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.960 / defence 1.139 | Bohemians attack 1.302 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Dundalk games / 61 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 23% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 52%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1.92. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.

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