Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dundalk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Bohemians in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dundalk, 4 for Bohemians and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2026, ended 2–1 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 75% and Bohemians 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | Bohemians 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.41 xG and Bohemians 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.914 / defence 1.440 | Bohemians attack 1.265 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.355. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Dundalk games / 67 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 19% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 59%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Bohemians 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Bohemians 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 19% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Dundalk 1.41 / Bohemians 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.914 / def 1.440 | Bohemians attack 1.265 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Bohemians xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 2 October 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 19% chance of winning, Bohemians a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Record (9 meetings): Dundalk 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 4W.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.91) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.26x) against Dundalk's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.47.
These ratings are built from 32/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
19%
5.33
22%
4.49
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.87
2.47
Bohemians xG
5.33
19%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
8%
11.81
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
2%
62.92
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dundalk and 2.47 for Bohemians, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 10W 11D 11L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 17W 8D 7L from 32 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 2D 4L from 16 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.84 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Bohemians in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 17W 8D 7L in their last 32 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.31 PPG; Bohemians away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Bohemians in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 69%, Bohemians 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Dundalk and 69% for Bohemians. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Dundalk's games and 56% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Dundalk's matches and 69% of Bohemians's.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.41 xG and Bohemians 2.47 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.91 / defence 1.44 against Bohemians attack 1.26 / defence 1.08, drawn from 32/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 19% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 59%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 62%, Bohemians 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.