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Poisson model rates Derry City at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Derry City's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Table Context

The standings have St Patrick's Athl. (3rd, 42 pts) 3 places above Derry City (6th, 29 pts) — a 13-point gap in Premier Division.

On home turf, Derry City's Premier Division record reads 5W 5D 3L this term. Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 3W 5D 4L in Premier Division this season. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

In-Play Data

Derry City trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 58% versus St Patrick's Athl. 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.33 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.021 / defence 0.911 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.779 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 61 Derry City games / 60 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derry City 44% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%.

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