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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Shelbourne 2-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 0.93 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Shelbourne attack 1.05 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 31% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 48%, Shelbourne 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Shelbourne's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.23 PPG, Shelbourne 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights