Drogheda United 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Shamrock Rovers — this Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Drogheda United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Drogheda United have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have the stronger record — 5 wins to Drogheda United's 0, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Drogheda United 1–2 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | Shamrock Rovers 50%). Note also that Shamrock Rovers surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Drogheda United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.38 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.923 / defence 1.003 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.225 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack rating of 1.225, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 42 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 42.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 39% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.58 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (Drogheda United's last 10 home games and Shamrock Rovers's last 10 away games) averaging only 2.1 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 40% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 39% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Drogheda United 1.38 / Shamrock Rovers 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.923 / def 1.003 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.225 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Shamrock Rovers xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 39% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 0.92x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.23x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Drogheda United's last 42 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.85
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.68
1.30
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.30 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 20W 28D 24L from 72 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 36W 19D 17L across 72 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 14W 14D 8L from their last 36 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 15W 10D 11L across their last 36 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Drogheda United (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Drogheda United
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 24L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.56 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 8 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won Shamrock Rovers 3-0 Drogheda United on 9 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
3
Draws
7
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Drogheda United have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 October 2026: Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Drogheda United) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Drogheda United vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Drogheda United's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Drogheda United's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 61% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 7, as Drogheda United and Shamrock Rovers drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.38 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.30 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 39% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 35%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 47%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.