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Drogheda United and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 18, as Drogheda United and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. It was 0-1 at the break, with 1 further goal after it. Scorers: G. Arubi (18') · L. Burney (57'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.67 xG and Dundalk 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.84 / defence 0.91 against Dundalk attack 1.04 / defence 1.34, drawn from 53/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 48% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 26%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 39%, Dundalk 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 64% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 58% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

In-Play Signals

Dundalk controlled the ball (55%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Drogheda United; and the extra possession only earned a share of the spoils. Dundalk shot more often (14 to 8, 6 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (0-1 at the interval). 1 of the 2 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics