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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Drogheda United and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United and Derry City finished level at 1-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.51 xG and Derry City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Derry City attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 46% | Draw 26% | Derry City 28%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights