Drogheda United 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Derry City meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derry City (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derry City away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Drogheda United, 1 for Derry City and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2024, ended 1–5 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 58% versus Derry City 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 56% | Derry City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.21 xG and Derry City 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.231 / defence 1.026 | Derry City attack 0.887 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.901. Derry City's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Drogheda United games / 66 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 44% | Draw 31% | Derry City 24%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Drogheda United at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 50% | Derry City 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 44% | Draw 31% | Derry City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Drogheda United 1.21 / Derry City 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.231 / def 1.026 | Derry City attack 0.887 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.361 / away 0.901 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Derry City xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Derry City kick off?
Drogheda United vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Drogheda United vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City part of?
Drogheda United vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 44% chance of winning, Derry City a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Drogheda United and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
Record (2 meetings): Drogheda United 0W | Draws 1 | Derry City 1W.
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (1.23) and Derry City's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.89x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.18
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.03
0.82
Derry City xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.82 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 16W 21D 29L from 66 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 31W 22D 13L across 66 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 10W 13D 10L from 33 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 13W 12D 8L across 33 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.52 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 16W 21D 29L in their last 66 games (1.05 PPG), while Derry City have gone 31W 22D 13L in their last 66 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.30 PPG; Derry City away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derry City in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 5-1 on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Drogheda United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 54%, Derry City 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Drogheda United) and 39% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Derry City in 46%; Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games; Derry City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 39% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Drogheda United's recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Derry City tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Derry City in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Drogheda United edge out Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Derry City 2-1 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.21 xG and Derry City 0.82 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.23 / defence 1.03 against Derry City attack 0.89 / defence 0.72, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 44% | Draw 31% | Derry City 24%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 56%, Derry City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.