Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bohemians are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Drogheda United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Drogheda United lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 55% versus Bohemians 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 45% | Bohemians 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.931 / defence 1.059 | Bohemians attack 1.345 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.251. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Drogheda United games / 60 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 47%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 2.13. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 60% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Drogheda United 1.31 / Bohemians 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.931 / def 1.059 | Bohemians attack 1.345 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Bohemians xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 3 July 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 0 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 27% chance of winning, Bohemians a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
Record (9 meetings): Drogheda United 4W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 3W.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.34x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 58/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
27%
3.68
25%
3.93
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
3.09
1.78
Bohemians xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
5%
21.83
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.78 for Bohemians, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 22D 19L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 13D 19L from 58 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.57 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (11W 11D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 13W 6D 10L from 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.47 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 17W 22D 19L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 13D 19L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.52 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 52%, Bohemians 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Drogheda United) and 59% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bohemians in 38%; Bohemians in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 48% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Drogheda United's recent games and 59% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 0-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.78 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians attack 1.34 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 47%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 45%, Bohemians 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.26 PPG, Bohemians 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.