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Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Drogheda United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Drogheda United 1-4 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.12 xG and Bohemians 0.75 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 43% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 24%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 46%, Bohemians 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.24 PPG, Bohemians 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights