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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Derry City run riot with a 7-2 hammering of Waterford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Waterford 7-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.48 xG and Waterford 0.86 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 5.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waterford outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Waterford attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 52% | Draw 26% | Waterford 22%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Waterford 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Waterford's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.59 PPG, Waterford 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights