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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 2-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.35 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 47% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.56 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights