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Dominant Derry City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sligo Rovers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 3-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.74 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.80 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.30 / defence 1.41, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 37% | Draw 23% | Sligo Rovers 40%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights