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Derry City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shelbourne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Shelbourne 2-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.22 xG and Shelbourne 1.25 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shelbourne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Shelbourne attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 35% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 36%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.67 PPG, Shelbourne 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights