🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Shamrock Rovers 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.33 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 43% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 27%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 42%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.58 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights