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Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shamrock Rovers beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.31 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 41% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 31%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.67 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights