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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Drogheda United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Derry City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Drogheda United beat Derry City 1-3 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.92 xG and Drogheda United 0.91 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Drogheda United attack 0.89 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 33% | Draw 35% | Drogheda United 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Drogheda United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights