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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Derry City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Derry City and Cork City drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.85 xG and Cork City 0.90 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derry City fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Cork City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.37 / defence 0.97 against Cork City attack 0.86 / defence 1.50, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 77% | Draw 14% | Cork City 9%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 42%, Cork City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cork City's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights