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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derry City and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Derry City and Bohemians drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.62 xG and Bohemians 1.01 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.39 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 52% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Bohemians 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Bohemians's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.58 PPG, Bohemians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights