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Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Bohemians 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Bohemians 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.21 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 38% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 31%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derry City 1.67 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights