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Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Cork City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Cork City 1-2 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 0.93 xG and Shelbourne 1.19 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 32/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 29% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 42%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 50%, Shelbourne 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Shelbourne's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Cork City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights