🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shelbourne (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face Shelbourne.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cork City welcome Shelbourne to Turners Cross. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Cork City — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Cork City at Turners Cross this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Shelbourne's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cork City's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shelbourne have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Cork City.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with Shelbourne winning.

It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Cork City in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cork City 69% and Shelbourne 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 50% | Shelbourne 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 0.93 xG and Shelbourne 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.853 / defence 1.099 | Shelbourne attack 1.096 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 0.985. Data: 32 Cork City games / 68 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cork City 29% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 42%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Shelbourne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cork City 60% | Shelbourne 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights