🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cork City and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 18, as Cork City and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.07 xG and Shelbourne 1.22 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Shelbourne attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 17/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 32% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 40%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Shelbourne 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights