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Poisson model favours Shelbourne (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face Shelbourne.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 18 as Cork City welcome Shelbourne to Turners Cross. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Cork City — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cork City at Turners Cross this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turners Cross than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Shelbourne's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cork City's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shelbourne have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Cork City.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Shelbourne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Cork City in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 46% versus Shelbourne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Shelbourne 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.07 xG and Shelbourne 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.863 / defence 1.169 | Shelbourne attack 0.904 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.158. Data: 17 Cork City games / 54 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cork City 32% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 40%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Shelbourne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cork City 40% | Shelbourne 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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