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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Cork City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Cork City 1-2 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.23 xG and Derry City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Derry City attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cork City 36% | Draw 28% | Derry City 35%, with Cork City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Derry City's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Cork City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights