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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.92 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.94 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights