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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians face St Patrick's Athl..

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Match Analysis

Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.92 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.934 / defence 0.943 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.941 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.216. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Bohemians games / 47 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 80% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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