Bohemians 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians at 1.30 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.07 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.876 / defence 0.985 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.840 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 0.977. Data: 52 Bohemians games / 54 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Bohemians 1.07 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.876 / def 0.985 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.840 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.153 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.81
St Patrick's Athl. xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 2 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.16
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bohemians xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.81 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 23L across 72 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.44 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 17W 9D 10L from 36 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 17W 6D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 games (1.44 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Bohemians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.67 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians's games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bohemians's matches and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 2-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.07 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.