Shamrock Rovers 0-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shelbourne have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 2.10 for Shelbourne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Shelbourne in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 0 for Shelbourne and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 40% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 46% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.39 xG and Shelbourne 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.431 / defence 1.070 | Shelbourne attack 1.100 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 0.998. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Shamrock Rovers games / 54 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 42% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 32%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Shelbourne 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Shamrock Rovers 30% | Shelbourne 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 42% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.39 / Shelbourne 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.431 / def 1.070 | Shelbourne attack 1.100 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.182 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Shelbourne xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Shamrock Rovers 0 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 42% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne?
Record (1 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 0W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 0W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.10x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.78
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.56
1.17
Shelbourne xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.17 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 44W 19D 9L from 72 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 21L across 72 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 29W 5D 2L from 36 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.10 PPG overall — Shamrock Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 11W 13D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 games (2.10 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 25W 26D 21L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Shelbourne away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.56 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, Shelbourne have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 47%, Shelbourne 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shamrock Rovers) and 33% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Shelbourne in 39%; Shelbourne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 33% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Shamrock Rovers 0-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.39 xG and Shelbourne 1.17 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Shelbourne outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.43 / defence 1.07 against Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 42% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 32%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 46%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Shelbourne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.