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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shelbourne beat Bohemians 2-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.18 xG and Shelbourne 1.11 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shelbourne outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Shelbourne attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 36% | Draw 31% | Shelbourne 33%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 40%, Shelbourne 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Shelbourne's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Shelbourne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights