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Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.15 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.22 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 31% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 35%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights