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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.

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Full Analysis

Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 0.90 PPG clear of Bohemians in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bohemians 1W, Shamrock Rovers 1W, 1D.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.15 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.950 / defence 1.070 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.006 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.131. Data: 36 Bohemians games / 36 Shamrock Rovers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 31% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Shamrock Rovers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Shamrock Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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