Bohemians 1-0 Galway United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face Galway United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bohemians welcome Galway United to Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Galway United have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Galway United's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.20 PPG, Galway United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Bohemians have won 2, Galway United 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Bohemians 0–2 Galway United — a Galway United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Galway United trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Galway United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 42% | Galway United 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Galway United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.25 xG and Galway United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.068 / defence 1.006 | Galway United attack 0.811 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. Data: built from Bohemians's last 41 games and Galway United's last 41. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.29 | Draw 3.26 | Galway United 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Galway United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Galway United 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Bohemians 41 games, Galway United 41) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 6 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bohemians 1.25 / Galway United 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.068 / def 1.006 | Galway United attack 0.811 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Galway United xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Galway United kick off?
Bohemians vs Galway United kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Galway United.
Where is Bohemians vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Galway United part of?
Bohemians vs Galway United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 6) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 44% chance of winning, Galway United a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bohemians and Galway United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bohemians vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.07x the league average against Galway United's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 41 games and Galway United's last 41, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.26
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.15
0.90
Galway United xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.90 for Galway United, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 18D 28L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Galway United sit at 1.26 PPG from 72 outings (22W 25D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.33 PPG, Galway United on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians's home form reads 14W 8D 14L across their last 36 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Galway United have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 14D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Galway United are on 0.97 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Galway United
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Galway United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Galway United
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Galway United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Galway United have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Galway United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Galway United away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jul 2025, when Bohemians won Bohemians 3-0 Galway United.
Bohemians's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Galway United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Galway United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Galway United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Galway United 2-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Galway United?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Galway United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Galway United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Bohemians and 25% for Galway United.
On the defensive side: Galway United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Galway United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 44% of Galway United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Galway United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 25% of Galway United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Galway United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 61% of Galway United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Galway United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Galway United 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.25 xG and Galway United 0.90 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galway United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Galway United attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Galway United 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Galway United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Galway United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.