Bohemians 5-3 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 2W 5D 3L at Dalymount Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Derry City (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians, 1.30 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bohemians register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Derry City in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians lead 2W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2026, ended 1–4 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 51% | Derry City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.27 xG and Derry City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.952 / defence 1.002 | Derry City attack 0.907 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.224. Data: 63 Bohemians games / 63 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 35% | Derry City 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Derry City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 90% | Derry City 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 35% | Derry City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.27 / Derry City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.952 / def 1.002 | Derry City attack 0.907 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Derry City xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 5 - 3 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 36% chance of winning, Derry City a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 3 | Derry City 4W.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Derry City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.91x) against Bohemians's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
36%
2.77
35%
2.82
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.38
1.11
Derry City xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.11 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 28W 14D 21L from 63 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 17L across 63 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Bohemians against 1.52 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 9L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 10W 10D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.38 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 28W 14D 21L in their last 63 games (1.56 PPG), while Derry City have gone 25W 21D 17L in their last 63 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.61 PPG; Derry City away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Derry City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Bohemians 5-3 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 55%, Derry City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bohemians) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Bohemians keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Derry City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Bohemians's games and 58% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bohemians's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Derry City in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Derry City 5-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.27 xG and Derry City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Derry City attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 36% | Draw 35% | Derry City 29%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 51%, Derry City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.56 PPG, Derry City 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.