Poisson rates Bohemians at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dalymount Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Derry City (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Bohemians's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Derry City in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Derry City have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Bohemians's 2, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2026, ended 1–4 with Derry City winning.
It is worth noting that Derry City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Stats
Across 25 matches this season, Bohemians have gone 12W 7D 6L. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 10 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 7 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 25 games (24%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Derry City show 6W 11D 8L from 25 outings in Premier Division. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 25 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (10 vs 6). Derry City are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Bohemians score 2+ goals far more often (24% vs 8%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Bohemians 6/7 vs Derry City 3/4 this season.
Where They Stand
The standings have Bohemians (2nd, 43 pts) 4 places above Derry City (6th, 29 pts) — a 14-point gap in Premier Division.
On home turf, Bohemians's Premier Division record reads 4W 5D 3L this term. Derry City have gone 1W 6D 5L on their travels. Bohemians: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 51% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.32 xG and Derry City 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.951 / defence 0.994 | Derry City attack 0.827 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 61 Bohemians games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 30% | Derry City 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Derry City lead the H2H ledger, but Bohemians carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 80% | Derry City 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Bohemians (A. Reynolds) | Derry City (T. Lynch) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 3 | Derry City 5W • Goals trend: 2.60 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bohemians 10 – 16 Derry City • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 30% | Win rates: Bohemians 20% / Draw 30% / Derry City 50% • Historical edge: Derry City dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Derry City (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Bohemians as more likely (home 41% / draw 30% / away 29%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.60/game (30% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.39 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Bohemians (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W • Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Bohemians home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Derry City away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: Bohemians lead by 1.10 PPG (2.10 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson xG of 1.32 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Derry City): Poisson xG of 1.07 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.39 (43% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~80% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Bohemians — Bohemians at 41% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 30% | Derry City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1.32 / Derry City 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.951 / def 0.994 | Derry City attack 0.827 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Derry City xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Dalymount Park.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 41% chance of winning, Derry City a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
• Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 3 | Derry City 5W • Goals trend: 2.60 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Bohemians 10 – 16 Derry City • H2H markets: BTTS 60% | Over 2.5 30% | Win rates: Bohemians 20% / Draw 30% / Derry City 50% • Historical edge: Derry City dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Derry City (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Bohemians as more likely (home 41% / draw 30% / away 29%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.60/game (30% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.39 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 60%, Poisson probability 50% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
• Bohemians (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W • Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L • Bohemians home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | CS 2 • Derry City away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • Form edge: Bohemians lead by 1.10 PPG (2.10 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson xG of 1.32 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.30 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Derry City): Poisson xG of 1.07 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~1.9 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.39 (43% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~80% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 50% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Bohemians — Bohemians at 41% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Bohemians vs Derry City?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture