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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Bohemians 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Bohemians 3-4 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.30 xG and Derry City 0.78 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 0.78 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 48% | Draw 30% | Derry City 22%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Derry City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Derry City's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.37 PPG, Derry City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights