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Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cork City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Cork City 3-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.74 xG and Cork City 0.70 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Cork City attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 63/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 62% | Draw 24% | Cork City 14%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 41%, Cork City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cork City's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights