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Poisson model favours Bohemians (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians face Cork City.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Cork City — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cork City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Cork City have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Bohemians have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Cork City have managed just 2 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2025, ended 2–0 with Bohemians winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bohemians and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Bohemians trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).

Cork City trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 37% versus Cork City 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 41% | Cork City 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.74 xG and Cork City 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.977 / defence 0.856 | Cork City attack 0.814 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.010. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Bohemians games / 27 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 62% | Draw 24% | Cork City 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Cork City 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Cork City 70%.

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