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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Cork City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians beat Cork City 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.88 xG and Cork City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cork City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Cork City attack 0.89 / defence 1.48, drawn from 45/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Cork City 20%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.22 PPG, Cork City 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights