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Poisson rates Bohemians at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Cork City encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.

Cork City — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Cork City have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Cork City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Cork City winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Bohemians trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Cork City trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Cork City 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.88 xG and Cork City 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.015 / defence 1.093 | Cork City attack 0.886 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.081. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians games / 9 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Cork City 20%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Cork City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Cork City 50% BTTS from recent games.

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