Volos NFC 0-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panserraikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.10 PPG, Panserraikos 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Volos NFC, 0 for Panserraikos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Panserraikos trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 58% versus Panserraikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 58% | Panserraikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.56 xG and Panserraikos 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.895 / defence 1.400 | Panserraikos attack 1.046 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.234. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Volos NFC games / 33 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 31% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 41%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Panserraikos 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panserraikos at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 80% | Panserraikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 31% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG Volos NFC 1.56 / Panserraikos 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.895 / def 1.400 | Panserraikos attack 1.046 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Panserraikos xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Volos NFC 0 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 31% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Volos NFC and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Record (3 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.90) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.52
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.37
1.81
Panserraikos xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
5%
19.88
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.81 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 10D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (10W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panserraikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.00 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Panserraikos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Panserraikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 75%, Panserraikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Volos NFC and 50% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panserraikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Volos NFC's games and 40% of Panserraikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Volos NFC's matches and 50% of Panserraikos's.
Do Volos NFC and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out Volos NFC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Volos NFC 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.56 xG and Panserraikos 1.81 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Panserraikos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.90 / defence 1.40 against Panserraikos attack 1.05 / defence 1.46, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 31% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 41%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 58%, Panserraikos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panserraikos's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.