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Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Volos NFC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 0-3 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.51 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Levadiakos outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Levadiakos attack 1.06 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Levadiakos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Levadiakos's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights