🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Levadiakos defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Levadiakos 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Levadiakos attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 36%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Levadiakos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Levadiakos's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.24 PPG, Levadiakos 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights