Volos NFC 1-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Panthessaliko Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 1.80 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Volos NFC, 3 for Levadiakos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 41% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Levadiakos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Levadiakos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.926 / defence 0.906 | Levadiakos attack 1.157 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.218. Data: 36 Volos NFC games / 36 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 36%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 30% | Levadiakos 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Volos NFC 1.33 / Levadiakos 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.926 / def 0.906 | Levadiakos attack 1.157 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Levadiakos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Volos NFC 1 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 38% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): Volos NFC 3W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 3W.
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.79
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.28
Levadiakos xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.28 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 17W 6D 23L from 46 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 14L across 46 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.24 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 7W 4D 11L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 8W 8D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.65 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 17W 6D 23L in their last 46 games (1.24 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.14 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Volos NFC
0
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 3, Levadiakos have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 41%, Levadiakos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Volos NFC) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 59% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Volos NFC's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levadiakos defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Levadiakos 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Levadiakos attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 36%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Levadiakos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.24 PPG, Levadiakos 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.