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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Volos NFC — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Panthessaliko Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 1.80 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Volos NFC, 3 for Levadiakos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Levadiakos winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Volos NFC trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Levadiakos trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 41% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Levadiakos 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Levadiakos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.926 / defence 0.906 | Levadiakos attack 1.157 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.218. Data: 36 Volos NFC games / 36 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 36%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 30% | Levadiakos 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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